New Welsh commission to examine independence and further devolution

The Welsh Government is establishing a new independent commission to examine Wales' constitutional future, including the possibility of independence, greater powers for the Senedd and a federal United Kingdom.

The National Commission for Wales will provide advice, evidence and analysis to help inform decisions about how Wales is governed and where political power should sit.

Announcing the plans on Tuesday, Constitution Minister Dafydd Trystan Davies said the commission would examine three potential options: an independent Wales, enhanced devolution within the UK, and a federal UK in which each of the four nations would have greater control over its own affairs.

The commission is expected to cost approximately £500,000 a year.

Three options for Wales' constitutional future

The commission will not be exclusively focused on independence. Instead, it will consider a range of possible constitutional arrangements.

These include:

• Welsh independence: Wales becoming a sovereign state outside the United Kingdom.

• Enhanced devolution: Transferring additional powers and responsibilities from Westminster to the Senedd and Welsh ministers.

• A federal United Kingdom: Giving Wales, Scotland, England and Northern Ireland significantly greater control over their domestic affairs, while Westminster retains responsibility for areas such as defence.

The Welsh Government says the commission will also examine devolution priorities, including the Crown Estate, rail infrastructure, justice and policing.

Its work will extend beyond the relationship between Cardiff Bay and Westminster, considering how responsibilities could be shared between the Welsh Government, regional authorities and local councils.

Who will lead the commission?

The National Commission for Wales will be chaired by Dame Menna Rawlings and Professor Emyr Lewis.

Dame Menna previously served as British ambassador to France and as High Commissioner to Australia.

Professor Lewis is an emeritus professor at Aberystwyth University, with expertise in constitutional law.

Professor Lewis told the BBC that the commission would operate independently and would not campaign for any particular outcome.

He said: "We're not here to wave the flag for any conclusion or solution. We're here to do a job of work, to advise the government."

The Welsh Government says the commission will engage with people across Wales and carry out research into the political, economic and democratic questions surrounding the country's future.

A date for its final report has not yet been confirmed.

Independence referendum ruled out during this Senedd term

Plaid Cymru made establishing the commission a manifesto commitment ahead of the Senedd election in May.

However, the party has ruled out holding an independence referendum during the current Senedd term, which is due to end in 2030.

If re-elected, Plaid has suggested it could publish a white paper setting out the case for independence.

The commission is therefore intended to develop the evidence and arguments around Wales' constitutional options rather than prepare for an immediate referendum.

Rob Hughes, chair of the pro-independence organisation YesCymru, welcomed the announcement.

He described the commission as a step towards the organisation's ambition of an independent Wales, while acknowledging that public support would need to be built before a referendum could be won.

YesCymru is looking towards 2032 as a possible date for a referendum.

Political parties divided over the plans

The announcement has prompted different reactions from political parties in the Senedd.

Reform UK's Welsh leader Helen Jenner criticised the commission, describing it as a waste of time and money.

She argued that the Welsh Government should concentrate on public services, education and the NHS rather than constitutional questions.

Welsh Conservative Senedd leader Darren Millar also attacked the decision, arguing that Wales was becoming caught in a cycle of constitutional commissions and demands for additional powers.

Labour's Huw Thomas offered a more cautious welcome, particularly to the commission's inclusion of regional and local devolution.

However, he questioned the need for another commission and sought confirmation that an independence referendum would not take place during the current Senedd term.

Minister Dafydd Trystan Davies reaffirmed that position.

Pressure for more powers closer to communities

The commission's work comes as the Welsh Government faces pressure from the Westminster Labour administration led by Andy Burnham to transfer more responsibilities to regional authorities in Wales.

This means the debate is not simply about whether powers should move from Westminster to Cardiff Bay. It also concerns whether some decisions should be taken closer to individual communities.

Dafydd Trystan Davies said the way the United Kingdom is structured and governed is under increasing strain, with questions about devolution, accountability and where decisions should be made becoming more pressing.

He said responsibilities should sit at the level of government where they can be exercised most effectively, whether national, regional or local.

What happens next?

The National Commission for Wales will begin examining the country's constitutional options, gathering evidence and engaging with communities across Wales.

Its conclusions could help shape future debates about the relationship between Wales and the rest of the United Kingdom, as well as the distribution of powers within Wales itself.

For now, independence remains one of several options under consideration, rather than an immediate government policy or referendum commitment.

The central question will be whether the commission can provide a credible, independent assessment of the choices available to Wales and what each would mean for its economy, public services and democratic future.